* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/17/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 38 45 53 57 63 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 23 24 27 28 29 36 44 52 38 47 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 27 28 30 33 37 42 34 41 46 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 9 4 11 11 8 7 13 11 19 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 1 -1 1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 348 1 7 308 301 336 324 324 302 313 289 320 327 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.4 29.0 29.6 30.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 164 168 168 169 167 169 160 153 163 173 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 153 156 156 157 156 159 152 144 154 173 159 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 61 58 58 59 59 58 57 58 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 29 21 13 -6 -21 -33 -26 -49 -20 -19 0 200 MB DIV 17 17 23 10 -13 -15 -2 2 13 12 23 16 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -5 0 -4 -7 8 LAND (KM) 11 -21 -17 31 86 262 294 211 82 -23 182 388 174 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.5 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.3 77.1 77.7 78.4 79.0 80.6 82.3 84.1 86.4 89.1 91.6 94.0 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 10 13 12 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 71 96 99 103 94 79 109 130 68 20 43 76 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 26. 31. 37. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -9. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 13. 20. 28. 32. 38. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 76.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/17/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 92.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.59 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 32.2% 21.4% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 26.9% 16.9% 7.5% 4.8% 11.1% 20.2% 55.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.0% 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 2.0% Consensus: 4.3% 24.0% 13.8% 6.9% 1.7% 3.9% 11.4% 19.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/17/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/17/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 24 27 28 29 36 44 52 38 47 50 53 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 29 30 37 45 53 39 48 51 54 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 26 33 41 49 35 44 47 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 24 32 40 26 35 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT