* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 32 39 47 54 59 63 66 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 24 29 30 31 38 46 54 50 54 58 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 23 27 28 31 34 39 44 44 48 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 14 11 6 14 7 7 7 14 15 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 2 3 1 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 28 336 357 359 327 330 345 317 263 298 266 297 319 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.0 29.2 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 163 166 168 170 169 169 168 153 156 172 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 150 152 154 155 159 156 158 158 144 146 166 170 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 12 13 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 62 62 58 61 59 61 58 57 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 12 20 13 -8 -6 -32 -22 -48 -32 -30 -20 200 MB DIV 31 14 13 27 7 -24 -6 2 15 11 13 28 15 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -5 0 -8 8 LAND (KM) 77 10 -2 15 51 193 267 236 156 -36 122 328 338 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.2 22.3 23.5 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.2 77.0 77.7 78.3 79.8 81.3 83.0 84.9 87.3 89.7 92.0 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 8 7 9 11 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 73 90 103 107 82 84 122 131 28 28 87 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 26. 31. 36. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 14. 22. 29. 34. 38. 41. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 75.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.55 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.87 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 27.0% 18.8% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 34.6% 21.6% 14.0% 12.0% 23.8% 37.0% 65.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 24.1% 7.9% 0.9% 0.7% 3.8% 1.6% 3.0% Consensus: 5.2% 28.5% 16.1% 9.1% 4.2% 9.2% 17.1% 23.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/17/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 24 29 30 31 38 46 54 50 54 58 62 18HR AGO 25 24 21 26 27 28 35 43 51 47 51 55 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 27 28 35 43 51 47 51 55 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 24 32 40 36 40 44 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT