* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 34 43 51 57 63 69 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 23 26 27 29 35 44 52 37 40 46 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 27 29 32 36 41 33 36 42 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 5 10 15 11 8 9 4 0 7 4 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 2 3 3 -1 1 0 2 0 3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 43 38 331 345 356 318 349 325 79 287 286 307 5 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 162 165 165 165 162 170 163 160 158 166 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 153 155 155 156 154 164 156 156 152 158 159 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 59 60 60 60 61 61 64 64 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 20 16 19 10 4 0 -7 -4 -31 -9 1 200 MB DIV 49 24 6 -3 11 -14 -9 5 30 27 9 34 24 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 -3 -2 0 -2 -6 0 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 115 11 -6 4 44 232 337 293 70 -138 78 138 2 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.1 77.0 77.9 78.7 80.5 82.4 84.5 86.9 89.5 92.4 94.9 97.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 14 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 63 69 85 94 90 70 101 79 52 15 25 66 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 13. 20. 26. 31. 37. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 18. 26. 32. 38. 44. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 75.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.51 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.88 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.3% 14.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.1% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 3.1% 11.9% 38.8% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 2.7% 9.6% 6.2% 3.6% 0.2% 1.5% 8.0% 13.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 23 26 27 29 35 44 52 37 40 46 52 18HR AGO 25 24 21 24 25 27 33 42 50 35 38 44 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 27 33 42 50 35 38 44 50 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 24 33 41 26 29 35 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT