* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 43 50 59 63 69 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 43 50 59 43 42 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 40 46 38 37 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 8 8 13 6 12 4 3 7 8 8 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 2 4 0 1 0 1 -5 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 21 33 40 351 345 332 336 32 327 202 289 260 312 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.1 29.5 29.0 29.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 155 158 162 165 165 165 171 160 152 154 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 147 150 154 154 156 154 161 150 144 143 159 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 12 10 13 11 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 60 62 65 62 65 62 65 62 64 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 37 28 18 20 0 3 -14 -13 -26 -19 -11 200 MB DIV 30 43 29 21 2 12 -23 2 18 34 24 38 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 3 1 1 -4 0 -1 -2 -6 3 -9 LAND (KM) 161 154 81 55 35 127 297 354 278 105 -130 61 286 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.2 21.0 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 75.1 76.0 76.9 77.8 79.5 81.1 82.8 84.6 86.4 88.7 90.9 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 9 8 9 10 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 96 70 56 70 79 76 80 121 116 72 12 31 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 18. 25. 34. 38. 44. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 74.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.47 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.83 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.2% 15.6% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.9% 3.3% 1.9% 1.0% 3.7% 8.5% 35.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 2.8% 9.6% 6.5% 4.1% 0.3% 1.4% 6.8% 12.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 43 50 59 43 42 46 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 29 33 42 49 58 42 41 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 29 38 45 54 38 37 41 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 22 31 38 47 31 30 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT