* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 30 36 43 51 57 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 30 36 43 51 57 65 48 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 33 37 42 48 56 45 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 8 8 8 10 9 3 6 9 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 5 2 2 2 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 19 13 23 34 349 348 309 2 330 319 294 299 284 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 29.5 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 153 156 161 163 163 165 171 160 150 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 142 145 149 152 152 152 153 159 150 139 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 59 60 63 65 63 64 63 62 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 37 34 42 34 24 16 0 -11 -24 -21 -54 -27 200 MB DIV 22 12 39 33 21 17 -11 -8 18 2 8 2 23 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 2 5 4 -1 0 2 -1 -7 -2 0 LAND (KM) 236 224 187 156 123 119 185 339 334 244 105 -37 130 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.2 21.2 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 74.5 75.4 76.2 77.1 78.7 80.0 81.5 82.8 84.3 86.2 88.2 90.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 87 103 65 52 65 75 67 83 120 122 77 19 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 18. 26. 32. 40. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 73.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.47 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.80 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 19.6% 16.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 9.1% 5.1% 2.4% 1.0% 4.0% 9.8% 28.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 4.7% Consensus: 3.2% 11.2% 7.5% 4.2% 0.4% 1.6% 7.6% 11.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 29 30 36 43 51 57 65 48 53 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 28 34 41 49 55 63 46 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 25 31 38 46 52 60 43 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 18 24 31 39 45 53 36 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT