* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 38 43 51 56 63 68 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 30 38 43 51 56 63 68 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 24 24 27 29 33 36 40 45 51 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 13 7 13 7 12 6 10 8 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 5 2 1 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 39 12 11 22 27 333 317 329 342 327 286 309 280 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 148 149 151 162 166 168 168 169 169 159 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 141 142 143 153 155 156 154 155 156 149 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 58 59 62 65 63 64 59 61 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 4 5 3 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 34 29 34 18 16 -5 -1 -33 -16 -46 -30 200 MB DIV 5 19 16 36 30 11 9 -16 9 0 14 -3 -7 700-850 TADV 3 5 2 1 2 3 0 -3 1 0 -2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 232 231 201 200 133 37 53 195 276 223 115 99 134 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.7 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.2 74.0 74.9 75.7 77.4 78.8 80.0 81.2 82.5 83.9 86.0 88.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 7 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 63 81 101 83 56 79 96 82 85 106 121 48 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 18. 26. 31. 38. 43. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 72.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.49 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.77 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 18.8% 15.5% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.4% 8.8% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 2.7% 9.6% 6.3% 3.7% 0.2% 1.0% 7.0% 7.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 28 30 38 43 51 56 63 68 73 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 27 29 37 42 50 55 62 67 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 26 34 39 47 52 59 64 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 19 27 32 40 45 52 57 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT