* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 45 54 63 71 79 87 94 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 38 45 54 63 71 79 87 94 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 34 39 46 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 11 5 9 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 4 7 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 49 69 92 48 23 7 2 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 145 145 152 157 161 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 141 140 141 147 152 156 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 59 59 59 58 57 59 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 47 63 58 41 42 16 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 26 24 23 29 11 4 12 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 4 0 1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 252 270 335 318 233 202 268 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.2 17.2 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.3 71.4 72.5 73.5 74.4 76.5 78.6 80.6 82.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 60 61 75 85 46 84 59 107 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 25. 29. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 24. 33. 41. 49. 57. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 70.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.44 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.74 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 17.3% 14.1% 8.7% 7.0% 10.8% 12.7% 47.8% Logistic: 3.3% 6.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 3.5% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 3.1% Consensus: 2.6% 8.3% 6.5% 3.5% 2.5% 4.4% 5.5% 19.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 38 45 54 63 71 79 87 94 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 44 53 62 70 78 86 93 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 40 49 58 66 74 82 89 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 33 42 51 59 67 75 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT