* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 46 52 57 64 70 75 81 87 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 46 52 57 64 70 75 81 87 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 47 53 61 70 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 13 10 10 7 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 4 2 7 1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 27 45 64 79 9 18 346 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 149 147 147 148 157 160 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 145 141 141 143 151 153 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 57 57 59 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 40 46 57 42 41 25 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 26 22 13 10 16 22 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 284 245 254 285 227 134 155 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.9 70.0 71.2 72.2 73.2 75.2 77.3 79.2 80.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 63 66 65 77 70 67 74 66 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 17. 22. 29. 35. 40. 47. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 68.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.42 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 27.6% 18.7% 12.8% 10.7% 14.0% 14.7% 41.5% Logistic: 5.3% 13.5% 11.1% 6.0% 1.9% 5.2% 6.0% 14.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.1% 7.8% 10.2% Consensus: 4.6% 14.5% 11.4% 6.3% 4.2% 7.1% 9.5% 22.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 43 46 52 57 64 70 75 81 87 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 43 49 54 61 67 72 78 84 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 43 48 55 61 66 72 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 35 40 47 53 58 64 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT