* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 45 48 53 57 64 68 73 78 83 90 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 45 48 53 57 64 68 73 78 83 90 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 52 59 68 77 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 9 10 4 11 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 4 7 4 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 37 38 41 63 32 19 351 353 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 149 147 147 154 161 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 146 144 141 141 149 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 52 54 57 56 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 41 45 46 49 29 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 0 13 23 11 24 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 4 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 306 281 240 248 258 167 109 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.9 70.1 71.1 72.2 74.1 76.2 78.3 80.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 58 64 66 66 89 50 76 64 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 29. 33. 38. 43. 48. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 67.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.39 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 34.8% 22.5% 14.1% 12.0% 18.9% 18.9% 40.1% Logistic: 17.8% 26.3% 22.0% 20.1% 10.2% 24.0% 22.3% 32.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 43.3% 39.6% 3.0% 2.1% 26.1% 11.2% 8.0% Consensus: 10.9% 34.8% 28.0% 12.4% 8.1% 23.0% 17.5% 26.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 45 48 53 57 64 68 73 78 83 90 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 48 52 59 63 68 73 78 85 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 46 53 57 62 67 72 79 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 44 48 53 58 63 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT