* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 39 46 54 60 67 74 81 88 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 39 46 54 60 67 74 81 88 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 33 38 44 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 8 6 9 8 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 2 4 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 17 47 33 38 79 10 32 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 149 149 147 145 148 154 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 146 146 143 139 142 149 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 50 51 55 58 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 43 40 42 54 42 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 5 2 19 23 27 -1 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 336 334 310 278 314 286 190 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.5 67.7 68.9 70.1 71.3 73.4 75.0 77.0 79.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 50 56 65 65 77 84 57 76 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 24. 30. 37. 44. 51. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 66.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.37 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 16.5% 13.1% 10.1% 8.3% 11.8% 11.8% 21.7% Logistic: 3.1% 7.1% 4.7% 4.6% 2.3% 10.5% 12.4% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.2% 1.8% Consensus: 2.8% 8.3% 6.3% 4.9% 3.5% 7.8% 8.8% 14.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 39 46 54 60 67 74 81 88 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 45 53 59 66 73 80 87 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 41 49 55 62 69 76 83 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 33 41 47 54 61 68 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT