* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 39 46 54 62 69 77 85 92 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 39 46 54 62 69 77 85 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 33 38 44 52 63 74 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 6 5 12 7 12 6 9 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 1 0 5 1 1 0 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 355 25 59 54 62 53 34 19 11 342 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 149 149 145 145 152 159 161 162 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 145 147 145 140 140 148 155 155 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 52 55 57 57 58 59 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 35 40 47 45 47 47 34 32 10 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 7 14 6 27 32 23 7 -3 1 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 -1 1 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 361 333 333 340 311 283 301 211 158 273 286 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.9 66.3 67.6 68.9 70.1 72.2 74.0 76.1 78.5 80.7 82.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 57 53 59 67 66 86 47 73 62 98 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 24. 32. 39. 47. 55. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 64.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.38 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.71 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.77 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 15.3% 12.0% 9.0% 7.3% 11.0% 11.6% 22.4% Logistic: 2.1% 7.9% 5.2% 4.4% 1.9% 5.3% 8.2% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3% Consensus: 2.0% 8.0% 5.8% 4.4% 3.1% 5.5% 6.7% 13.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 33 39 46 54 62 69 77 85 92 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 38 45 53 61 68 76 84 91 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 35 42 50 58 65 73 81 88 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 43 51 58 66 74 81 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT