* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 36 41 48 57 64 70 78 85 91 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 36 41 48 57 64 70 78 85 91 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 36 41 48 56 66 77 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 9 6 11 11 10 9 12 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 1 2 3 4 0 2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 327 352 23 61 44 84 28 55 5 18 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 149 147 146 151 159 160 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 146 146 148 144 142 147 155 153 151 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 13 13 11 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 48 50 51 54 55 57 57 57 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 36 43 50 43 48 41 34 15 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 0 11 14 18 29 27 -1 -7 4 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 417 355 335 352 320 267 311 223 148 234 307 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.7 65.1 66.5 67.9 69.3 71.7 73.8 76.0 78.3 80.3 82.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 11 11 11 11 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 60 55 52 62 65 82 48 71 64 79 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 13. 22. 29. 35. 43. 50. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 63.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.35 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.74 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 13.3% 10.2% 7.8% 6.2% 10.4% 11.3% 21.2% Logistic: 1.8% 5.3% 3.5% 2.7% 1.1% 2.6% 4.7% 11.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.3% Consensus: 1.6% 6.4% 4.6% 3.5% 2.4% 4.4% 5.5% 11.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 34 36 41 48 57 64 70 78 85 91 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 36 41 48 57 64 70 78 85 91 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 39 46 55 62 68 76 83 89 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 39 48 55 61 69 76 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT