* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 31 32 35 41 49 54 60 66 74 79 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 31 32 35 41 49 54 60 66 74 79 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 31 31 33 37 43 50 59 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 17 16 11 9 12 9 13 7 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 3 6 1 5 3 3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 305 316 334 356 11 52 43 38 7 1 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 148 148 146 149 155 157 161 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 146 146 147 146 142 144 150 152 155 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 13 12 12 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 44 46 48 53 55 59 59 59 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 28 40 48 46 50 46 28 27 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -19 -5 -6 0 47 57 20 7 3 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -3 0 1 0 1 1 -2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 467 402 349 333 360 280 329 294 222 226 327 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.5 64.0 65.4 66.8 68.2 70.9 73.2 75.3 77.3 79.3 81.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 50 60 54 53 68 76 68 55 79 66 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 6. 14. 19. 25. 31. 39. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 62.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.34 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.74 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.3% 11.1% 8.7% 6.9% 10.5% 10.0% 19.2% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 5.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.4% 3.8% 3.7% 7.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 32 31 32 35 41 49 54 60 66 74 79 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 33 36 42 50 55 61 67 75 80 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 31 34 40 48 53 59 65 73 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 35 43 48 54 60 68 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT