* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 38 41 47 53 58 63 68 75 80 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 37 38 41 47 53 58 63 68 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 36 35 36 39 43 48 55 65 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 17 13 13 13 7 14 9 13 7 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 0 3 2 4 7 3 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 310 295 308 326 349 24 55 18 30 346 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 147 147 149 146 146 151 156 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 149 148 147 148 143 142 146 150 153 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 13 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 45 47 50 55 58 60 61 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 22 25 31 42 54 54 51 50 37 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 10 -10 4 1 14 55 26 0 12 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -4 -3 0 0 1 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 467 483 386 326 312 323 272 339 266 210 231 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.5 63.9 65.5 67.0 69.8 72.2 74.4 76.5 78.3 80.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 15 14 13 11 11 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 51 49 61 55 65 65 81 44 78 66 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 7. 13. 18. 23. 28. 35. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 61.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.35 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.8% 12.3% 9.6% 7.9% 11.6% 11.2% 19.2% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.8% 4.5% 3.4% 2.7% 4.1% 4.0% 7.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 37 38 41 47 53 58 63 68 75 80 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 39 42 48 54 59 64 69 76 81 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 40 46 52 57 62 67 74 79 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 40 46 51 56 61 68 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT