* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 33 34 36 41 47 53 57 63 70 77 V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 33 34 36 41 47 53 57 63 70 77 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 32 31 31 32 35 39 43 50 58 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 18 14 14 8 12 15 11 16 10 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 0 7 4 4 4 1 -2 1 -6 SHEAR DIR 294 305 316 302 313 360 356 26 17 19 6 9 346 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 149 149 148 151 147 147 153 160 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 149 148 148 147 148 143 141 147 155 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 45 44 46 50 54 58 62 63 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 12 18 19 31 45 47 45 40 29 12 1 200 MB DIV -16 9 4 -24 -15 -10 10 37 3 27 3 4 3 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -7 -10 -4 -1 -1 0 1 -2 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 554 511 518 396 301 274 257 277 286 199 128 263 212 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.6 16.0 16.8 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.8 60.3 61.8 63.3 64.8 67.8 70.4 72.8 74.8 76.6 78.3 80.6 83.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 59 63 44 57 62 66 76 86 48 64 48 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. 1. 7. 13. 17. 23. 30. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 58.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.34 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.71 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.5% 8.6% 7.6% 6.1% 9.6% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 36 34 33 34 36 41 47 53 57 63 70 77 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 37 39 44 50 56 60 66 73 80 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 36 38 43 49 55 59 65 72 79 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 38 44 50 54 60 67 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT