* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 38 39 40 44 47 50 54 60 67 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 38 39 40 44 47 50 54 60 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 38 37 35 35 37 40 43 48 55 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 24 19 17 14 7 15 10 15 10 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 4 1 3 7 2 6 3 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 294 296 307 318 314 343 353 359 23 358 3 347 20 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 148 148 149 149 147 150 155 160 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 146 148 148 147 146 145 142 144 147 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 49 48 49 51 57 60 63 66 68 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 15 14 14 11 11 9 8 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 3 9 13 21 24 40 50 44 46 28 17 200 MB DIV -5 -5 18 22 -10 8 -31 7 22 27 17 28 8 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -2 -5 -9 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 647 571 531 533 401 233 256 204 239 197 134 158 324 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.7 60.1 61.6 63.0 66.0 68.5 71.0 73.3 75.4 77.1 79.1 81.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 40 56 66 44 66 67 67 81 54 59 63 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -20. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 57.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.30 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.6% 11.2% 9.5% 7.8% 10.7% 9.3% 14.3% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.2% 3.9% 3.3% 2.6% 3.9% 3.4% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 40 38 38 39 40 44 47 50 54 60 67 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 40 41 42 46 49 52 56 62 69 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 39 40 41 45 48 51 55 61 68 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 37 41 44 47 51 57 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT