* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 45 46 49 53 57 65 68 73 77 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 45 46 49 53 57 65 68 73 77 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 43 41 41 43 48 55 64 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 28 26 20 17 9 8 10 7 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 4 5 6 1 7 3 7 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 291 293 306 307 300 330 328 55 63 42 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 147 149 149 148 150 148 148 150 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 145 146 150 148 145 148 144 140 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 48 49 49 49 53 55 57 60 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 17 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 10 0 5 17 28 37 48 52 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 0 5 7 15 6 -11 -2 40 21 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -5 -6 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 761 671 603 553 545 291 229 241 234 252 211 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.7 57.1 58.4 59.8 61.3 64.6 67.3 70.0 72.7 74.7 76.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 13 14 15 14 13 13 12 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 28 38 53 67 54 68 62 76 84 45 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 3. 7. 15. 18. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 55.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.57 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.4% 12.6% 10.7% 8.8% 11.6% 9.9% 14.1% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.9% 4.4% 3.7% 3.0% 4.2% 3.5% 5.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 46 45 46 49 53 57 65 68 73 77 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 45 46 49 53 57 65 68 73 77 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 45 48 52 56 64 67 72 76 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 40 43 47 51 59 62 67 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT