* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 43 41 42 45 49 53 59 65 70 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 43 41 42 45 49 53 59 65 70 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 44 42 40 37 36 35 36 39 44 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 23 24 26 20 19 12 11 15 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 1 2 7 0 5 2 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 295 314 315 301 301 315 318 351 344 31 31 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 147 147 147 149 149 148 149 146 147 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 146 146 148 151 150 148 148 142 144 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 50 50 50 50 51 54 60 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 15 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 21 20 23 16 14 22 34 37 42 49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -3 3 -16 4 30 -16 -4 -2 19 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -7 -11 -10 -10 -6 -3 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 833 713 601 511 473 336 333 288 316 336 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 54.3 55.7 57.1 58.5 61.7 65.0 68.0 70.7 73.1 75.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 21 28 39 47 65 54 69 79 57 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -7. -9. -8. -5. -1. 3. 9. 15. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 53.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.57 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.58 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 9.6% 6.9% 6.7% 5.3% 8.3% 5.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 2.4% 2.3% 1.8% 2.8% 2.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 44 42 43 41 42 45 49 53 59 65 70 18HR AGO 50 49 46 44 45 43 44 47 51 55 61 67 72 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 45 43 44 47 51 55 61 67 72 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 39 40 43 47 51 57 63 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT