* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 43 41 44 46 52 55 61 65 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 43 41 44 46 52 55 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 43 39 37 37 39 43 49 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 25 26 25 28 22 18 8 13 10 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 11 10 6 6 3 0 6 7 5 6 2 SHEAR DIR 280 298 318 315 297 305 314 329 347 11 52 30 61 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 144 147 147 149 149 149 151 147 147 152 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 144 148 148 150 149 149 150 144 141 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 13 12 14 12 12 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 52 52 52 51 52 51 56 60 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 18 15 13 13 10 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 40 29 23 24 28 10 26 32 41 42 48 34 20 200 MB DIV 17 14 9 17 -9 1 -5 12 -18 0 9 7 16 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -6 -8 -6 -12 -8 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1007 950 827 701 593 481 379 267 295 259 281 256 263 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.1 54.5 56.0 57.5 60.5 63.6 66.7 69.7 72.2 74.2 76.3 78.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 13 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 18 23 31 49 46 64 60 73 82 44 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -21. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -14. -11. -9. -3. 0. 6. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.5 51.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.53 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 10.0% 7.2% 7.0% 5.5% 8.3% 0.0% 7.3% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.5% 2.5% 2.4% 1.9% 2.9% 0.2% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 49 48 43 41 44 46 52 55 61 65 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 49 44 42 45 47 53 56 62 66 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 43 41 44 46 52 55 61 65 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 39 37 40 42 48 51 57 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT