* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 58 56 51 48 46 47 50 53 59 65 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 58 56 51 48 46 47 50 53 59 65 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 59 57 51 45 42 40 40 40 43 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 22 28 30 29 26 24 20 21 18 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 10 11 10 4 5 1 1 2 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 310 301 304 318 320 309 317 317 335 331 352 19 20 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 142 145 147 147 148 148 148 151 147 147 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 140 143 146 146 147 148 148 149 142 141 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 10 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 50 53 55 52 52 51 54 58 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 15 14 13 11 10 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 28 21 20 15 3 10 9 24 18 33 33 200 MB DIV 23 20 17 13 10 -14 6 3 0 -16 8 13 22 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -6 -8 -4 -11 -9 -7 -1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1057 1013 926 813 709 524 491 341 259 268 267 294 244 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.0 53.4 54.6 55.9 58.8 61.4 64.2 67.2 70.0 72.4 74.3 76.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 13 14 13 14 14 13 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 16 17 18 22 42 48 55 62 61 75 81 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -8. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -12. -14. -13. -10. -7. -1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 50.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.5% 9.7% 8.9% 7.2% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.5% 3.5% 3.3% 2.5% 3.3% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 58 56 51 48 46 47 50 53 59 65 18HR AGO 60 59 59 57 55 50 47 45 46 49 52 58 64 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 47 44 42 43 46 49 55 61 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 43 40 38 39 42 45 51 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT