* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 62 61 57 53 50 51 51 55 59 66 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 62 61 57 53 50 51 51 55 59 66 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 62 62 58 52 47 44 43 44 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 23 28 25 28 25 22 14 19 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 7 8 10 6 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 312 315 298 297 313 305 307 310 330 347 9 29 24 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 138 140 143 146 147 148 147 147 149 149 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 135 137 141 144 145 145 143 143 144 146 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 10 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 50 52 55 54 53 54 56 61 63 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 18 19 17 16 13 13 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 65 50 43 30 21 15 -3 5 2 0 0 3 11 200 MB DIV 29 22 16 20 12 -10 16 -6 13 -6 -8 -19 6 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -6 -8 -7 -7 -14 -10 -5 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1128 1063 1012 984 874 667 526 518 332 258 278 215 247 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.0 50.3 51.6 52.8 54.0 56.5 59.2 61.8 64.2 66.5 68.7 71.0 73.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 17 17 18 25 44 46 54 66 61 68 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -17. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -9. -9. -5. -1. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 49.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.5% 12.5% 11.1% 9.4% 11.0% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.1% 1.4% 2.0% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.0% 4.8% 4.4% 3.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 62 61 57 53 50 51 51 55 59 66 18HR AGO 60 59 60 60 59 55 51 48 49 49 53 57 64 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 55 51 47 44 45 45 49 53 60 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 45 41 38 39 39 43 47 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT