* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 61 60 60 58 53 53 55 56 62 70 75 V (KT) LAND 60 60 61 60 60 58 53 53 55 56 62 70 75 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 59 59 57 53 49 47 45 47 53 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 15 22 23 25 25 23 12 3 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 14 12 8 12 1 3 -2 3 7 6 3 SHEAR DIR 305 297 287 270 292 310 310 313 306 333 335 55 92 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 135 138 140 146 147 148 148 148 149 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 135 138 145 145 147 148 146 146 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 11 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 48 51 56 54 50 50 48 50 50 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 20 17 17 17 14 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 76 69 57 47 36 31 19 21 29 34 46 37 55 200 MB DIV 22 32 33 32 31 10 10 17 12 0 -19 3 33 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 -5 -8 -6 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1199 1133 1069 1034 984 757 581 511 348 245 283 222 259 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.9 50.3 51.6 52.9 55.5 58.1 60.9 63.8 66.6 69.2 71.4 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 34 30 16 16 22 39 52 44 64 55 66 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -13. -14. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -7. -5. -4. 2. 10. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 47.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.9% 12.1% 10.7% 9.2% 11.2% 7.7% 6.2% Logistic: 1.7% 2.3% 1.4% 1.4% 0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.9% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 4.2% 2.8% 2.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 61 60 60 58 53 53 55 56 62 70 75 18HR AGO 60 59 60 59 59 57 52 52 54 55 61 69 74 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 53 48 48 50 51 57 65 70 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 48 43 43 45 46 52 60 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT