* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 62 63 62 59 58 57 60 63 68 70 V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 62 63 62 59 58 57 60 63 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 60 61 61 61 58 53 49 47 47 49 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 11 15 23 25 26 23 18 12 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 10 13 10 10 4 2 2 2 2 7 4 SHEAR DIR 1 323 318 307 285 306 307 309 306 331 14 36 59 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 135 138 142 147 147 148 148 148 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 131 132 135 139 145 146 146 146 145 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 51 51 56 55 53 51 53 53 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 19 19 18 18 17 14 14 12 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 83 74 68 60 50 35 21 5 12 19 22 23 25 200 MB DIV 19 19 22 30 30 33 8 36 -9 21 -27 8 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 -5 -6 -8 -7 -14 -10 -5 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1264 1197 1143 1083 1037 883 690 537 506 306 258 287 234 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.6 48.9 50.2 51.5 53.9 56.4 59.2 62.0 64.7 67.1 69.7 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 15 33 30 16 17 27 47 43 59 59 55 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. 0. 3. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.5 46.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.6% 13.8% 11.3% 9.8% 11.6% 8.6% 8.2% Logistic: 2.4% 3.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.1% 5.7% 4.4% 3.6% 4.4% 3.2% 3.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 62 62 63 62 59 58 57 60 63 68 70 18HR AGO 60 59 61 61 62 61 58 57 56 59 62 67 69 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 57 56 53 52 51 54 57 62 64 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 50 47 46 45 48 51 56 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT