* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 71 73 74 75 72 66 65 65 68 73 79 V (KT) LAND 65 67 71 73 74 75 72 66 65 65 68 73 79 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 68 71 73 76 75 69 63 60 58 62 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 10 8 18 23 26 23 19 7 3 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 7 12 8 11 2 3 -1 6 4 5 SHEAR DIR 355 6 326 332 324 292 301 300 294 294 342 15 51 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 134 134 135 139 145 147 148 148 146 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 132 132 133 137 144 145 146 146 144 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 47 50 47 49 47 51 52 52 51 53 52 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 19 20 21 18 17 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 71 67 55 42 27 17 14 32 33 47 50 200 MB DIV 25 30 9 21 19 2 16 1 46 21 5 0 25 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 -7 -3 1 0 LAND (KM) 1375 1292 1221 1151 1086 1002 770 566 470 439 324 324 245 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.8 47.1 48.5 49.9 52.5 55.2 57.9 60.5 63.1 65.6 68.4 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 28 35 15 21 36 51 41 65 53 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 9. 10. 7. 1. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 44.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.43 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 21.5% 18.3% 16.6% 14.0% 14.3% 10.7% 9.8% Logistic: 7.0% 10.0% 8.8% 5.9% 2.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 3.2% 6.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 11.6% 11.3% 7.6% 5.7% 5.9% 3.9% 3.4% DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 5( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 71 73 74 75 72 66 65 65 68 73 79 18HR AGO 65 64 68 70 71 72 69 63 62 62 65 70 76 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 65 62 56 55 55 58 63 69 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 57 54 48 47 47 50 55 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT