* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 69 72 72 72 66 63 58 56 58 60 64 V (KT) LAND 65 66 69 72 72 72 66 63 58 56 58 60 64 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 68 70 72 72 69 63 55 48 44 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 8 12 20 31 30 32 26 20 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 5 8 8 6 1 2 0 1 3 7 SHEAR DIR 336 341 338 310 313 295 303 295 300 304 329 1 18 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 133 133 133 138 143 146 147 149 148 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 131 131 131 136 140 144 146 150 148 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 48 48 50 53 54 55 52 51 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 20 20 18 18 16 14 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 91 83 81 70 61 51 25 19 0 11 34 31 34 200 MB DIV 16 20 22 26 27 18 24 -13 28 12 12 -18 9 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -1 0 -1 -6 -8 -10 -5 -15 -9 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1475 1392 1313 1244 1188 1064 878 675 540 473 280 283 247 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.6 46.0 47.4 48.8 51.7 54.2 56.7 59.4 62.3 65.6 68.2 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 13 14 15 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 9 13 28 16 19 29 48 41 68 56 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. 1. -2. -7. -9. -7. -5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.7 43.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.43 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 21.4% 18.2% 15.3% 13.3% 14.2% 10.5% 7.8% Logistic: 6.2% 12.7% 8.5% 4.5% 3.1% 4.9% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.7% 9.9% 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 14.7% 10.7% 6.7% 5.5% 6.6% 3.9% 2.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 69 72 72 72 66 63 58 56 58 60 64 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 70 70 64 61 56 54 56 58 62 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 64 64 58 55 50 48 50 52 56 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 55 49 46 41 39 41 43 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT