* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 73 76 77 75 72 66 66 64 66 70 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 73 76 77 75 72 66 66 64 66 70 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 70 73 76 80 80 75 67 59 52 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 5 7 11 24 28 32 27 19 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 6 7 13 5 9 2 2 1 8 8 SHEAR DIR 294 336 353 311 305 294 294 306 299 300 318 11 15 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 132 134 136 141 146 151 150 150 151 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 129 133 134 139 145 150 150 152 152 155 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 48 48 48 52 53 53 49 52 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 20 19 20 20 17 18 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 78 77 68 51 35 20 11 6 34 36 46 200 MB DIV 1 13 11 17 31 25 16 18 -14 5 13 0 4 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -5 0 -1 -3 -6 -7 -3 -5 -12 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1547 1468 1389 1301 1229 1098 975 739 564 526 294 292 233 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.4 44.7 46.2 47.7 50.6 53.1 55.8 58.6 61.7 65.0 68.3 71.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 14 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 9 8 9 19 18 23 37 43 66 52 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -4. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -6. -11. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 1. 1. -1. 1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 42.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.43 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.32 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 25.4% 19.8% 17.9% 14.4% 17.6% 12.6% 11.9% Logistic: 6.7% 17.3% 13.7% 7.0% 3.6% 6.6% 2.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 2.2% 10.1% 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 2.1% 2.0% 0.1% Consensus: 5.8% 17.6% 13.1% 8.4% 6.1% 8.7% 5.7% 4.3% DTOPS: 10.0% 19.0% 13.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 6( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 68 70 73 76 77 75 72 66 66 64 66 70 18HR AGO 65 64 66 69 72 73 71 68 62 62 60 62 66 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 68 66 63 57 57 55 57 61 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 59 57 54 48 48 46 48 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT