* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 75 78 81 80 78 74 71 68 70 71 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 75 78 81 80 78 74 71 68 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 73 76 79 85 86 84 78 69 61 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 8 5 10 15 26 25 33 23 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 5 4 7 7 7 4 0 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 87 325 344 360 343 317 284 297 293 302 311 336 343 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 132 134 140 145 152 152 151 151 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 127 130 133 139 144 152 153 152 154 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 47 47 45 46 50 49 49 45 49 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 18 17 17 15 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 105 94 89 78 78 59 47 37 22 15 22 29 36 200 MB DIV -13 4 8 15 17 24 23 20 -22 -5 -3 -7 -5 700-850 TADV 2 -3 -8 -6 -1 -2 -7 -10 -9 -10 -14 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 1626 1542 1464 1374 1292 1145 1050 791 581 523 281 273 237 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.3 43.6 45.1 46.5 49.5 52.3 55.1 58.1 61.3 64.8 68.1 71.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 13 8 8 19 16 21 34 46 61 55 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 16. 13. 9. 6. 3. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 41.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.42 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 30.1% 22.5% 22.3% 16.5% 22.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 18.7% 15.3% 9.6% 4.7% 11.1% 3.3% 1.4% Bayesian: 3.5% 15.8% 9.3% 0.8% 0.4% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 8.3% 21.6% 15.7% 10.9% 7.2% 12.0% 5.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 11.0% 21.0% 11.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 8( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 72 75 78 81 80 78 74 71 68 70 71 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 73 76 75 73 69 66 63 65 66 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 70 69 67 63 60 57 59 60 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 61 60 58 54 51 48 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT