* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 71 74 78 81 82 80 78 75 72 71 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 71 74 78 81 82 80 78 75 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 74 77 83 87 91 92 87 76 66 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 8 8 8 8 15 20 28 32 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 5 5 0 2 1 4 -3 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 47 61 348 345 3 336 336 295 304 299 304 315 329 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 129 130 133 138 144 151 155 153 153 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 125 128 132 137 144 152 157 154 154 152 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 47 46 47 46 48 49 51 52 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 108 101 91 91 82 78 62 43 30 20 11 12 34 200 MB DIV -21 -17 6 6 6 9 -4 8 3 -3 24 4 3 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -9 -6 0 -3 -4 -5 -7 -10 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1702 1617 1537 1442 1348 1164 1030 907 635 445 432 361 338 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.9 42.0 43.4 44.8 47.8 50.5 53.4 56.3 59.2 61.9 64.9 68.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 8 11 8 13 23 17 24 44 43 64 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 20. 18. 15. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.4 39.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.33 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 34.3% 24.6% 21.2% 14.9% 24.1% 14.6% 18.8% Logistic: 10.4% 20.3% 23.2% 18.9% 5.5% 11.6% 2.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 5.8% 2.2% 13.6% 0.9% 0.8% 5.3% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 10.5% 19.0% 20.4% 13.7% 7.1% 13.7% 5.8% 6.5% DTOPS: 21.0% 36.0% 26.0% 9.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 6( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 69 71 74 78 81 82 80 78 75 72 71 18HR AGO 60 59 63 65 68 72 75 76 74 72 69 66 65 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 61 65 68 69 67 65 62 59 58 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 57 60 61 59 57 54 51 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT