* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 77 80 81 80 76 72 69 68 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 77 80 81 80 76 72 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 72 80 87 91 89 81 70 60 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 5 2 6 2 10 15 26 28 35 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 4 7 5 6 4 0 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 32 25 64 358 360 29 317 290 297 296 308 316 326 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 127 127 130 136 139 145 152 153 152 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 123 124 128 135 138 145 153 154 152 151 148 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 50 48 48 47 47 51 50 54 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 17 17 17 16 16 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 103 105 97 92 93 82 61 47 25 17 -2 -5 5 200 MB DIV 9 -15 -6 21 13 21 11 21 37 2 16 1 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -4 -7 1 -2 -5 -4 -10 -7 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 1792 1710 1632 1545 1464 1270 1123 1010 816 575 449 440 322 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.6 40.7 41.9 43.2 46.1 48.9 51.7 54.5 57.4 60.4 63.2 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 10 8 11 8 21 15 20 29 47 40 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 25. 26. 25. 21. 17. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 38.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.55 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 38.4% 26.6% 20.4% 14.5% 32.4% 29.1% 19.4% Logistic: 9.2% 17.9% 20.5% 11.3% 2.6% 8.8% 2.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 6.0% 12.3% 1.5% 0.5% 6.4% 5.5% 0.3% Consensus: 9.1% 20.8% 19.8% 11.1% 5.9% 15.9% 12.4% 6.9% DTOPS: 13.0% 37.0% 25.0% 25.0% 10.0% 27.0% 47.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 67 70 77 80 81 80 76 72 69 68 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 65 72 75 76 75 71 67 64 63 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 65 68 69 68 64 60 57 56 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 58 59 58 54 50 47 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT