* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 65 71 76 79 79 78 74 71 71 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 65 71 76 79 79 78 74 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 61 65 74 82 87 88 83 75 67 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 3 3 8 8 14 21 24 27 30 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 2 2 5 2 4 0 1 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 93 48 60 68 336 8 314 311 285 304 298 309 324 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 126 127 131 137 142 147 153 152 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 121 123 124 128 135 141 146 153 152 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 50 49 47 49 47 49 51 54 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 104 102 90 79 77 53 31 10 -1 -9 -2 200 MB DIV 30 11 -4 3 19 10 19 -1 14 29 12 17 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -3 -4 -1 -5 -3 -7 -7 -8 -6 LAND (KM) 1882 1810 1741 1648 1562 1379 1220 1081 1001 746 532 467 356 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.6 39.5 40.8 42.0 44.6 47.3 50.0 52.6 55.4 58.3 61.2 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 14 7 7 9 11 24 16 20 34 48 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 26. 31. 34. 34. 33. 29. 26. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 37.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 9.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 39.7% 28.0% 18.0% 13.0% 23.3% 34.4% 22.2% Logistic: 22.0% 32.7% 32.2% 16.9% 5.2% 13.3% 8.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 19.0% 37.2% 35.3% 8.9% 3.8% 18.7% 16.4% 2.3% Consensus: 17.4% 36.5% 31.8% 14.6% 7.4% 18.4% 19.7% 9.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 25.0% 13.0% 9.0% 3.0% 14.0% 61.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 56 61 65 71 76 79 79 78 74 71 71 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 58 64 69 72 72 71 67 64 64 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 56 61 64 64 63 59 56 56 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 50 53 53 52 48 45 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT