* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 62 67 75 81 86 87 87 82 80 76 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 62 67 75 81 86 87 87 82 80 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 64 69 79 88 95 97 95 87 78 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 5 2 8 4 12 10 21 23 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 0 0 2 4 3 9 7 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 78 80 60 61 53 343 20 329 299 306 290 300 300 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 126 126 130 135 139 147 151 153 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 119 122 123 127 133 139 146 151 154 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 53 50 47 48 48 48 52 52 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 17 18 15 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 108 103 98 104 106 100 90 74 57 36 24 5 11 200 MB DIV 38 50 22 -1 14 36 19 17 6 14 -13 6 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 -6 -1 -5 -6 -9 -10 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 1927 1870 1815 1725 1641 1460 1285 1132 994 834 606 456 478 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.8 38.5 39.6 40.8 43.4 46.0 48.7 51.5 54.2 56.9 59.7 62.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 14 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 10 12 14 7 10 9 22 16 19 26 45 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 22. 30. 36. 41. 42. 42. 37. 35. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 37.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 40.3% 27.8% 16.6% 12.4% 23.3% 36.9% 27.5% Logistic: 21.6% 36.0% 33.8% 17.7% 5.1% 19.8% 8.4% 6.2% Bayesian: 43.7% 26.8% 49.5% 21.6% 4.6% 28.9% 6.9% 3.7% Consensus: 25.7% 34.4% 37.0% 18.7% 7.4% 24.0% 17.4% 12.4% DTOPS: 14.0% 39.0% 25.0% 21.0% 5.0% 45.0% 73.0% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 52 58 62 67 75 81 86 87 87 82 80 76 18HR AGO 45 44 50 54 59 67 73 78 79 79 74 72 68 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 50 58 64 69 70 70 65 63 59 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 48 54 59 60 60 55 53 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT