* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 49 53 62 66 73 77 79 78 76 75 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 49 53 62 66 73 77 79 78 76 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 51 60 69 76 80 81 79 73 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 6 4 5 9 10 12 16 23 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -2 0 2 6 3 9 9 11 2 4 SHEAR DIR 77 74 74 54 69 302 334 315 335 300 308 295 296 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 124 125 127 133 138 144 150 153 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 117 118 120 124 131 137 145 151 154 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 58 58 55 53 52 49 47 48 47 50 51 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 18 17 18 17 18 18 18 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 93 106 103 93 97 92 78 79 60 43 33 21 10 200 MB DIV 34 45 37 13 -12 9 -4 25 -14 -1 10 -7 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 2 -3 -5 -3 -6 -6 -10 -12 -9 LAND (KM) 2004 1949 1896 1817 1741 1549 1366 1184 1036 906 638 465 401 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.0 37.7 38.6 39.6 42.2 44.9 47.6 50.6 53.5 56.5 59.0 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 14 15 14 14 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 4 6 8 12 14 7 9 13 21 17 24 42 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 18. 27. 31. 38. 42. 44. 43. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 36.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 21.4% 18.0% 12.0% 9.9% 13.7% 14.5% 23.7% Logistic: 10.4% 31.1% 26.5% 10.5% 3.5% 13.5% 7.4% 9.1% Bayesian: 5.8% 7.9% 7.1% 0.9% 0.3% 5.1% 17.0% 5.1% Consensus: 7.5% 20.1% 17.2% 7.8% 4.5% 10.8% 13.0% 12.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 49 53 62 66 73 77 79 78 76 75 18HR AGO 35 34 40 44 48 57 61 68 72 74 73 71 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 48 52 59 63 65 64 62 61 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 38 42 49 53 55 54 52 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT