* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 44 52 60 67 74 75 76 77 77 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 44 52 60 67 74 75 76 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 39 47 56 66 73 75 73 69 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 3 3 0 7 3 10 12 18 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -4 -1 3 3 9 8 8 11 2 2 SHEAR DIR 101 86 88 92 58 70 338 339 310 267 289 285 290 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 124 124 124 125 130 135 139 143 149 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 116 117 119 121 127 133 138 141 147 147 145 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 56 54 49 47 48 48 50 52 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 16 17 16 18 17 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 86 89 100 97 89 93 78 72 55 40 21 17 9 200 MB DIV 35 42 44 41 22 2 -16 -8 13 -5 -2 -15 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 -5 -2 -2 -4 -11 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 1957 2007 1958 1896 1837 1658 1460 1285 1143 1047 864 683 569 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.9 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.3 36.9 37.7 38.5 40.9 43.4 46.0 48.9 51.5 54.1 56.3 58.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 10 12 13 13 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 8 11 7 10 9 21 15 18 23 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 22. 30. 37. 44. 45. 46. 47. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 35.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.83 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 19.3% 16.3% 10.1% 8.2% 12.5% 14.1% 32.1% Logistic: 7.9% 32.6% 21.7% 5.8% 2.6% 12.8% 9.0% 10.4% Bayesian: 3.0% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 4.8% 3.1% Consensus: 5.2% 18.1% 13.1% 5.3% 3.6% 9.0% 9.3% 15.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 44 52 60 67 74 75 76 77 77 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 49 57 64 71 72 73 74 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 50 57 64 65 66 67 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 40 47 54 55 56 57 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT