* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 58 65 72 76 79 79 77 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 48 58 65 72 76 79 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 52 62 71 76 77 74 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 7 5 5 2 4 7 7 12 15 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 -1 -4 -1 2 6 2 8 5 11 0 SHEAR DIR 109 105 91 104 83 75 28 13 282 269 270 284 287 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 125 126 125 127 129 135 139 145 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 117 118 119 120 123 125 132 137 146 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 62 59 54 51 51 53 52 50 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 16 17 17 18 17 17 17 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 92 81 83 94 91 89 77 67 64 48 34 33 31 200 MB DIV 39 32 30 33 40 5 5 -8 26 22 3 0 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -6 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 1905 1943 1980 1963 1901 1758 1589 1426 1273 1137 1029 839 621 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.9 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.6 35.9 36.6 37.4 39.2 41.5 43.9 46.2 48.8 51.4 54.5 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 7 8 10 12 11 12 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 7 9 12 5 7 11 27 19 18 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 28. 35. 42. 46. 49. 49. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 35.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.89 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 16.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 13.3% 32.1% Logistic: 4.3% 17.3% 8.3% 1.4% 0.7% 4.6% 6.1% 6.7% Bayesian: 1.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.7% 4.9% Consensus: 3.2% 12.4% 7.7% 0.5% 0.2% 5.4% 7.0% 14.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 48 58 65 72 76 79 79 77 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 45 55 62 69 73 76 76 74 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 40 50 57 64 68 71 71 69 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 31 41 48 55 59 62 62 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT