* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 49 59 68 76 82 82 86 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 40 49 59 68 76 82 82 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 36 42 51 61 72 78 81 80 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 7 3 8 4 10 9 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 3 2 5 8 4 SHEAR DIR 99 100 100 95 102 48 45 350 329 318 267 287 277 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 126 126 127 128 131 135 139 144 148 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 117 119 119 121 124 128 132 137 143 149 155 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 62 60 57 55 53 53 54 51 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 18 19 18 20 20 18 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 96 90 84 89 95 90 96 87 81 68 45 29 23 200 MB DIV 41 44 39 40 55 23 18 9 26 30 23 1 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1887 1918 1949 1983 1925 1804 1632 1456 1294 1150 1047 960 701 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 35.3 35.6 36.3 36.9 38.3 40.4 42.8 45.2 47.7 50.1 53.0 56.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 6 8 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 8 9 13 8 5 8 19 30 18 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 19. 29. 38. 46. 52. 52. 56. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 35.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 NINE 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 16.5% 13.8% 8.2% 6.3% 10.7% 12.5% 23.3% Logistic: 2.0% 7.3% 3.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 2.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% Consensus: 2.3% 8.6% 5.7% 2.9% 2.2% 4.4% 5.3% 8.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 33.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 NINE 09/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 40 49 59 68 76 82 82 86 83 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 37 46 56 65 73 79 79 83 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 41 51 60 68 74 74 78 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 43 52 60 66 66 70 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT