* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 39 46 44 40 32 32 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 16 17 16 22 29 29 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -1 3 -2 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 216 240 248 238 232 226 224 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.5 28.8 28.1 27.5 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 159 148 138 130 121 117 112 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 133 125 117 110 102 98 94 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -51.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 5 9 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 38 38 40 42 37 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 21 22 25 22 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 18 13 20 17 24 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 39 27 27 12 51 14 19 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -2 6 3 4 8 12 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -88 -160 -229 -295 -349 -484 -612 -738 -713 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.6 33.4 34.9 36.2 37.6 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 92.9 92.5 91.8 91.2 89.4 87.6 85.7 83.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -0. -4. -11. -21. -22. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 9. 5. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.6 93.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.57 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 73.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.4% 3.1% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 30 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 31 31 31 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT