* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/30/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 45 50 44 38 37 34 32 28 V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 17 18 18 14 29 28 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 0 3 3 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 209 212 241 240 223 220 219 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.1 29.3 28.5 27.9 26.9 26.2 25.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 156 143 135 123 116 113 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 142 131 121 115 105 98 94 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.7 -52.7 -52.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.4 2.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 8 9 6 4 9 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 40 41 45 42 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 22 21 22 26 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 30 26 13 8 18 12 -9 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 20 35 29 34 21 46 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -5 -2 4 2 4 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -46 -112 -183 -257 -306 -455 -600 -746 -706 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.8 34.5 36.1 37.4 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.1 92.8 92.2 91.7 90.0 88.0 86.1 84.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 11 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. -7. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 4. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.2 93.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.58 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 285.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 73.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 12.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.5% 3.8% 0.4% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 40 39 35 33 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 32 32 33 33 33 33 33 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT