* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/30/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 54 54 57 52 47 38 36 32 V (KT) LAND 45 46 40 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 25 16 18 21 11 28 26 26 19 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 230 228 203 222 236 226 225 224 212 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.4 28.3 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 170 170 157 141 127 119 116 117 115 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 159 153 144 131 119 107 99 95 96 95 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -51.7 -52.6 -53.3 -54.5 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 8 9 5 9 1 3 0 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 43 40 39 39 45 42 42 43 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 22 21 21 24 20 16 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 24 17 34 28 1 17 7 8 7 50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 17 8 30 37 27 25 27 31 14 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 2 -2 3 0 8 2 13 0 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 114 42 -38 -108 -176 -269 -420 -522 -592 -666 -618 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.4 30.1 30.7 31.3 32.4 34.2 35.4 36.0 36.5 37.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 93.5 93.0 92.8 92.5 91.7 89.7 88.2 87.3 86.1 84.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 7 9 11 7 5 6 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 24 56 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. -8. -13. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 12. 7. 2. -7. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.7 93.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.1% 12.7% 8.3% 6.6% 12.5% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.2% 5.0% 3.0% 999.0% 4.4% 4.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/30/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 40 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 38 33 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 32 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT