* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 51 53 54 59 56 53 44 35 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 38 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 39 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 29 19 15 13 19 22 26 22 26 24 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -4 -3 1 6 SHEAR DIR 225 221 227 228 217 238 230 240 239 244 231 251 242 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.6 30.5 29.8 28.6 27.4 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 164 144 128 120 115 114 112 107 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 150 148 136 120 107 101 96 96 94 91 86 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.4 -55.2 -55.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 5 5 8 6 8 4 3 0 2 0 4 700-500 MB RH 46 44 41 38 39 40 42 43 46 50 53 55 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 25 24 22 20 23 20 19 14 9 15 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 19 15 36 11 17 -3 3 -16 12 56 49 200 MB DIV 34 31 29 12 16 28 19 31 41 33 40 34 2 700-850 TADV -2 -3 3 1 0 4 3 4 22 4 6 14 -23 LAND (KM) 56 18 -27 -79 -133 -251 -362 -467 -560 -671 -700 -604 -380 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.6 30.0 30.5 31.0 32.0 33.4 34.6 35.7 36.7 37.7 38.7 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 94.1 93.8 93.5 93.2 92.5 91.6 90.3 88.8 87.1 85.0 82.5 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 8 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 3 55 44 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -5. -9. -12. -18. -25. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 14. 11. 8. -1. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.1 94.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.18 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.1% 10.1% 6.4% 0.0% 11.0% 12.2% 9.2% Logistic: 3.0% 7.3% 4.5% 2.4% 1.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.1% 4.9% 3.0% 999.0% 4.3% 4.2% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 38 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 45 44 36 32 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 34 31 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 29 28 28 28 28 28 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT