* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/29/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 42 44 46 51 53 57 53 48 41 32 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 42 44 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 21 21 21 11 11 5 18 21 21 19 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 227 222 231 231 199 267 235 241 241 242 249 252 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.5 29.0 27.9 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 170 151 134 124 118 118 114 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 149 152 155 150 126 112 104 99 99 95 91 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -52.3 -54.1 -54.4 -55.5 -55.6 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 7 8 6 5 9 6 10 2 4 0 3 1 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 47 44 45 48 53 50 52 60 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 22 22 23 24 21 21 21 23 20 17 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 34 41 25 23 28 7 2 -15 -17 -14 -7 -3 200 MB DIV 8 33 35 41 38 37 37 14 18 53 7 58 29 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 4 0 2 -2 4 5 17 10 41 3 LAND (KM) 102 115 129 94 54 -84 -211 -303 -444 -545 -652 -617 -553 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.3 30.5 31.7 33.0 34.4 35.6 36.4 37.2 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 94.3 94.0 93.7 93.4 92.9 92.0 91.1 89.9 88.3 86.3 84.3 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 34 38 28 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -8. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 13. 17. 13. 8. 1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.2 94.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 55.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.3% 11.8% 7.2% 0.0% 12.7% 14.7% 12.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.1% 4.9% 2.7% 0.1% 4.5% 5.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 42 44 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 40 39 39 41 43 34 28 27 26 26 26 26 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 31 25 24 23 23 23 23 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 23 17 16 15 15 15 15 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT