* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 44 49 52 54 54 51 45 41 37 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 44 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 39 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 27 21 21 19 12 13 13 20 25 19 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 238 243 225 225 241 192 264 239 248 250 252 265 262 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 29.5 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 168 169 169 170 159 136 124 116 114 112 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 145 148 151 152 133 114 103 96 95 95 91 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -52.0 -53.1 -54.1 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 8 6 8 7 9 5 6 1 4 1 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 51 48 44 46 52 51 50 54 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 22 23 23 22 21 20 20 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 37 21 35 37 27 34 0 -3 -31 -12 -38 -21 14 200 MB DIV -13 8 41 43 33 42 28 15 6 21 24 30 42 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -4 1 -3 9 5 7 14 13 25 23 LAND (KM) 97 104 117 113 102 -24 -162 -309 -404 -511 -575 -702 -785 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.6 33.9 35.0 35.8 37.0 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 94.8 94.5 94.3 94.0 93.5 92.8 92.1 91.3 90.3 89.1 87.4 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 7 7 8 7 6 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 29 33 40 56 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 14. 14. 11. 5. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.0 95.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 170.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.6% 11.6% 7.3% 0.0% 12.5% 13.7% 11.2% Logistic: 1.2% 2.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.1% 4.4% 2.6% 0.1% 4.4% 4.9% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 42 44 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 43 39 31 27 26 26 26 26 27 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 35 27 23 22 22 22 22 23 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 28 20 16 15 15 15 15 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT