* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 39 40 43 47 51 52 53 49 44 38 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 39 40 43 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 32 35 29 22 19 14 17 13 14 19 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -6 -2 2 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 231 228 237 241 236 239 207 270 252 244 248 249 251 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.4 29.2 28.1 27.3 26.6 26.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 167 168 169 170 153 136 126 118 112 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 135 137 140 148 147 126 112 105 98 93 87 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -53.1 -53.9 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 4 6 6 8 7 9 5 6 2 6 700-500 MB RH 56 51 48 48 49 45 42 45 53 56 56 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 23 24 24 24 24 23 22 22 21 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 47 38 32 17 29 16 26 -10 -3 -29 -8 -38 19 200 MB DIV 18 16 1 5 38 28 30 28 25 38 43 47 45 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 -1 -1 3 -1 8 9 9 14 6 11 LAND (KM) 12 27 41 34 36 35 -66 -182 -277 -388 -466 -559 -654 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.2 30.3 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.4 35.4 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.6 94.3 93.8 93.2 92.4 91.6 90.8 90.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 15 22 24 30 28 40 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 18. 14. 9. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.6 95.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 10.2% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 3.1% 0.2% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 39 40 43 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 42 34 28 27 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 29 23 22 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT