* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 43 47 47 45 40 34 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 34 34 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 30 33 26 20 14 16 11 17 23 25 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 241 227 227 241 246 224 253 212 269 235 253 255 292 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.4 29.1 27.8 26.9 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 164 166 169 169 169 152 133 122 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 133 134 137 144 150 146 126 111 101 96 94 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -54.1 -54.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 5 4 8 5 10 6 9 3 6 1 700-500 MB RH 57 56 52 49 51 53 48 48 50 56 55 60 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 20 21 22 22 24 22 23 22 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 42 35 17 27 4 14 -16 -13 -36 -14 -65 200 MB DIV 17 20 12 0 7 48 26 52 11 36 -9 43 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -8 -2 -1 -2 1 1 0 5 8 21 19 LAND (KM) 10 40 69 80 89 66 30 -62 -191 -324 -420 -483 -530 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.5 29.4 30.3 31.5 32.7 33.9 34.7 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.1 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.3 94.8 94.3 94.0 93.6 92.9 91.8 90.9 89.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 4 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 18 18 19 21 32 15 43 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -5. -5. -6. -8. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 12. 12. 10. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.5 96.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.7% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 9.8% Logistic: 1.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 3.8% 0.3% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 39 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 38 42 33 28 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 35 39 30 25 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 28 32 23 18 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT