* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 41 43 46 47 46 42 40 32 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 39 42 44 37 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 36 36 36 36 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 27 26 32 34 21 22 13 20 18 22 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 1 -4 -1 -4 -3 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 235 239 227 230 242 237 248 238 265 266 268 269 279 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 29.6 28.2 27.5 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 163 165 168 168 169 160 137 128 119 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 134 133 135 139 143 144 132 113 105 98 93 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 8 6 6 6 8 7 9 6 7 3 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 52 50 53 51 49 49 55 57 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 19 19 21 22 22 21 20 18 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 31 36 38 31 23 17 5 14 -22 -17 -42 -21 -92 200 MB DIV 24 17 8 10 -2 34 25 33 45 10 8 28 22 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 -7 -1 0 3 -1 6 2 11 9 28 LAND (KM) -25 7 40 53 61 34 25 -32 -134 -239 -300 -405 -478 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.9 30.9 31.9 32.5 33.4 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.4 96.1 95.9 95.8 95.6 95.3 94.9 94.6 94.5 94.0 93.3 92.6 92.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 1 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 54 9 21 21 22 25 29 47 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -10. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 7. 5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.7 96.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 125.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.8% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 39 39 42 44 37 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 36 36 39 41 34 28 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 34 36 29 23 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 28 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT