* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 38 42 43 44 44 43 42 39 34 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 33 33 37 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 32 32 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 30 28 27 31 27 24 18 16 13 21 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 219 235 237 230 229 243 238 262 243 281 266 265 263 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 29.9 28.8 27.6 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 162 162 166 168 169 166 146 129 120 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 132 133 133 136 141 146 137 120 106 99 94 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 8 4 7 5 9 5 9 4 7 700-500 MB RH 61 58 59 57 53 51 54 50 50 50 54 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 18 22 22 21 19 18 18 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 31 39 35 11 15 1 4 -15 -26 -30 -18 200 MB DIV 44 24 4 3 15 18 49 24 53 19 26 -4 43 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -2 -5 1 0 1 1 -2 3 2 5 LAND (KM) -68 -42 -17 8 33 50 22 -15 -108 -192 -285 -367 -469 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.3 33.1 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 96.6 96.4 96.2 96.0 95.6 95.2 95.0 95.0 94.7 94.2 93.6 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 53 53 54 10 24 26 34 3 32 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.9 96.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.62 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 2.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.1% 3.8% 0.1% 999.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 33 33 37 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 35 35 39 40 34 31 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 34 38 39 33 30 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 29 30 24 21 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT