* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 39 43 38 33 30 24 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 28 32 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 30 29 28 31 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 26 29 28 26 32 23 24 17 25 23 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -3 -7 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 216 218 235 240 226 234 234 250 254 285 278 284 274 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.4 28.6 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 160 162 163 166 168 167 156 142 128 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 130 131 133 133 136 139 138 128 116 105 98 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 58 59 53 58 55 56 56 61 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 21 21 20 21 20 22 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 13 29 29 35 48 18 9 0 5 -31 -18 -54 -22 200 MB DIV 71 62 40 5 20 5 46 16 36 28 34 23 39 700-850 TADV 3 -5 -7 -3 0 0 0 5 0 6 3 8 9 LAND (KM) -102 -76 -51 -31 -10 31 16 -34 -80 -151 -217 -285 -335 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.6 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.5 32.2 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.0 96.8 96.5 96.3 95.9 95.7 95.5 95.4 95.3 95.2 95.0 94.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 4 4 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 51 52 49 53 3 25 13 59 52 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -11. -14. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 8. 3. -2. -5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.0 97.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.71 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.60 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 14.5% 11.2% 7.2% 6.2% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.8% 4.3% 2.5% 999.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 30 29 28 32 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 34 35 30 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 33 34 29 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 28 29 24 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT