* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 34 35 34 32 33 34 28 23 17 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 31 29 28 28 30 29 25 26 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 26 31 25 28 26 24 20 19 22 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 254 218 221 238 241 228 243 239 258 260 286 265 278 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.2 28.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 160 164 168 168 163 152 139 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 128 128 129 132 134 139 139 133 123 113 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 7 6 8 4 6 3 8 4 9 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 56 58 60 61 62 59 58 61 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 19 19 20 20 19 17 17 16 12 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 20 12 22 27 -17 -7 -28 -18 -43 -28 -66 200 MB DIV 33 62 68 49 22 42 22 40 25 34 -6 20 -9 700-850 TADV -2 3 -5 -7 -1 -4 0 0 2 1 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) -121 -96 -70 -48 -26 14 36 -14 -68 -111 -171 -224 -270 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.6 30.3 31.0 31.6 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.3 97.1 97.0 96.8 96.3 95.8 95.6 95.6 95.5 95.3 95.1 94.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 49 47 47 10 26 58 54 33 20 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -17. -23. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -7. -12. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.0 97.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.79 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.58 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.9% 10.7% 6.8% 6.2% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.3% 3.9% 2.3% 999.0% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 29 28 28 30 29 26 26 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 31 33 32 29 29 30 30 30 30 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 32 31 28 28 29 29 29 29 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 26 23 23 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT