* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 41 43 43 41 41 43 38 34 29 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 19 28 31 23 32 25 27 16 21 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 249 249 225 225 244 229 236 241 253 253 269 277 291 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 156 155 157 160 162 160 157 146 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 127 127 128 126 128 130 133 130 128 118 113 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 59 55 60 54 56 55 58 56 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 17 20 20 19 19 20 15 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -4 8 16 19 39 9 0 -6 12 -18 4 -43 200 MB DIV 21 35 49 53 51 37 31 15 24 19 7 5 -6 700-850 TADV 3 -1 2 -8 -8 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 -6 LAND (KM) -146 -142 -138 -119 -100 -56 -57 -70 -97 -141 -211 -247 -272 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.9 30.5 31.0 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 97.5 97.5 97.4 97.3 97.0 96.9 96.7 96.6 96.5 96.7 96.7 96.6 STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 51 50 53 47 48 52 52 39 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -12. -18. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -7. -11. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 29.3 97.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.48 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.2% 10.2% 6.9% 6.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.8% 3.6% 2.3% 999.0% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 36 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT