* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 47 48 47 49 50 50 49 51 46 43 40 V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 39 34 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 17 17 25 25 26 29 24 19 19 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 -4 0 -3 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 225 252 251 225 222 244 225 246 236 246 248 283 277 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 155 154 153 156 160 160 160 157 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 127 127 127 126 124 128 131 130 131 127 121 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 6 9 5 8 4 8 5 8 700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 62 59 58 57 56 56 56 60 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 18 19 20 21 20 21 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -17 -12 12 25 26 27 5 -5 -13 7 -13 -11 200 MB DIV 27 18 23 41 52 22 60 21 46 24 42 18 43 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 1 -7 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) -131 -134 -136 -120 -104 -39 -45 -56 -76 -109 -156 -202 -247 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.3 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.6 97.5 97.0 97.1 97.0 96.8 96.8 97.0 97.0 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 2 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 50 52 51 46 47 47 52 52 32 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. -0. 2. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -5. -4. -10. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. -3. -1. -0. 0. -1. 1. -4. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.2 97.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.44 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.3% 10.4% 7.5% 7.0% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.2% 4.0% 2.6% 999.0% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 38 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT