* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 62 58 55 56 53 51 48 47 50 50 53 49 V (KT) LAND 70 52 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 51 40 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 17 22 17 26 24 29 26 23 17 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 248 229 230 247 246 219 235 221 245 226 264 233 292 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 157 157 154 156 157 157 160 163 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 128 127 127 126 127 128 127 132 134 127 125 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 8 4 8 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 62 62 60 59 59 54 57 57 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 23 21 22 20 21 21 21 20 19 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -1 12 5 -23 -13 16 29 31 3 9 -10 9 -16 200 MB DIV 0 25 20 12 27 41 5 44 10 60 7 49 13 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 1 -1 -6 -3 -4 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) -77 -104 -131 -134 -136 -98 -64 -43 -28 -40 -107 -160 -184 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.8 29.6 30.1 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 97.2 97.3 97.4 97.5 97.6 97.4 97.0 96.8 96.7 96.5 96.4 96.4 96.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 51 51 51 52 48 48 52 53 52 44 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -10. -13. -15. -15. -13. -12. -12. -8. -3. 1. 5. 7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -4. -8. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -15. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. -20. -20. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.7 97.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.05 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.27 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.9% 6.2% 5.2% 4.8% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 2.8% 2.4% 1.9% 999.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 52 41 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 58 52 48 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 56 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT